A Simple Statistical Approach that will Keep you WINNING!
Under/Over is one of the most profitable soccer betting approaches for those who utilize soccer or football statistics. The under/over betting strategy is best explained through examples.
Team X and Team Y: example for over/under betting strategy
Let’s imagine that there is a match between two teams, X and Y. In the past 6 home games team X has conceded an average of 1.3 goals and has scored an average of 3.0 goals. On the other hand, team Y has conceded an average of 1.6 and scored an average of 1.1 goals in its past 6 away matches.
The maximum possible goals in the match can be established by adding what team X has scored in its home matches and what team Y has conceded in its away matches. That is 3.0 + 1.6 = 4.6 goals. Using the same approach it will be established that the minimum possible goals in the match between Team X and Team Y will be 1.3 + 1.1 = 2.4 goals. You should now proceed to calculate the average of the Minimum and Maximum goals as follows 4.6 +2.4 = 7/2 = 3.5 goals. Based on the findings you will bet in the Over 2.5 market.
For any market, your chances of winning are higher if the average of the minimum and maximum goals is higher (in case of over) or lesser (in case of under) by 0.2 goals. For instance, in the Over 2.5 goals market, it is safer to bet when the average of the maximum and minimum goals for the specific game is 2.70 or higher. The best places to find team statistics are Soccerway and Futbol24.
What more to consider
While the statistical approach explained above is very important for an under/over betting strategy, of course other considerations such as suspensions, injuries, team form, and the importance of the match to either team will play a role. For instance, if a player who scores most of the teams goals is injured then it will likely affect the team’s performance, and you should adjust your under/over betting strategy accordingly. For more information on team factors check Successful soccer betting tips.